The Australian Coalition's Net Zero Emissions Policy: A Tale of Political Turmoil and Internal Strife
The Coalition's Net Zero Emissions Policy: A Poisoned Promise?
The Australian Coalition's journey towards net zero emissions has been a tumultuous one, marked by shifting political landscapes and internal debates. The story begins with the Liberal Party's commitment to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, a promise made under Scott Morrison and later retained by Peter Dutton. However, as the narrative unfolds, this commitment is set to be abandoned, leaving a trail of political intrigue and controversy.
The Death of a Policy
By the time Liberal MPs gathered for the energy policy meeting, many had already accepted the party's promise was all but dead. The expectation was that the party would remain loosely committed to carbon neutrality at some point in the future, even if not by mid-century. However, just a week later, even this bare minimum pledge is set to be ditched, as support for net zero emissions in Sussan Ley's leadership team evaporated following the Nationals' move to abandon the climate target.
The country party's decision to announce an explicit position in advance of their Coalition partner incensed pro-net zero Liberals, who are now in a race against time and internal momentum to salvage the policy. Once the Liberal position is settled next week, the Coalition partners will negotiate a single policy, which sources expect will involve dumping the target and adopting a Nationals-inspired approach that aligns the pace of Australia's emissions reduction with that of other countries.
The Poisoned Term
Senior Liberals close to Ley believe voices on the 'populist' right, including Sky News, 2GB, and News Corp, have effectively 'poisoned' the term net zero in the political debate. These voices have hardened internal opposition, with news of the potential closure of the Tomago aluminium smelter, an uptick in inflation, and recent comments from billionaire Bill Gates that climate change 'will not lead to humanity's demise' playing a significant role.
Factional Shifts and Moderate Influence
The Nationals' decision to dump the target following its own review had 'altered the landscape', forcing the Liberals to fall into line to keep the Coalition together. The moderate faction, once influential, has been smashed at the past two elections by teal independents, Labor, and Greens. Despite this, the moderate voice is still heard, with South Australian senator Anne Ruston advocating for a firm climate target, highlighting the waning influence of the moderates.
The Fight for Net Zero Emissions
Moderate MPs are willing to concede the 2050 deadline to preserve some commitment to net zero emissions this century. However, they argue that the target cannot be abandoned entirely. Fellow moderate Dave Sharma has revived the prospect of splitting from the Nationals if the country party refuses to give ground, while other colleagues are rumoured to be open to relegating themselves to the backbench if net zero emissions is ditched.
The Communication Challenge
Senior Liberals are already planning how to communicate the anticipated new position, aiming to assure voters, particularly those in city seats, that the party has not capitulated on cutting emissions. However, the perception of the Coalition as a party of 'climate change deniers' makes this message difficult to sell, especially in urban seats where Barnaby Joyce is a 'box-office poison'.
The Way Forward
As the Coalition navigates this political turmoil, the future of net zero emissions remains uncertain. The moderate voices, though weakened, continue to advocate for a firm climate target, while the hard right pushes for more aggressive policies. The outcome of this internal struggle will shape the Coalition's position on climate change and determine the fate of net zero emissions in Australia.
