I can't recall ever feeling this confident at the start of an away Ashes series. It's the Ashes in Australia, a series England has become accustomed to losing, to the point that even Jimmy Anderson, the greatest English Test wicket-taker, has the home side as favorites. But if Australia has ever been vulnerable, it is now. Looking at the teams' current state, I feel optimistic about England's chances. The team is strong, cohesive, and I believe they will win the Ashes comfortably if Ben Stokes plays all five Tests. I can't recall ever feeling this confident before an away Ashes series.
This confidence is grounded in a formidable group of seamers and a top seven that have accumulated a wealth of Test cricket experience and runs. They will face an opposition without the injured Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood in Perth, giving them a favorable chance to rack up runs and dominate the game. Of course, England's past struggles in Australia make the data seem stacked against them. However, a closer examination reveals a different picture.
I can't recall seeing an Australia side in such disarray. The team appears to be led by a 31-year-old debutant and a 38-year-old in decline, opening the batting. The absence of Cummins means they are without their influential captain, an excellent bowler, and a leader who sets the tone. Now, they've also lost Hazlewood, their consistent, run-conserving bowler, who provides control. Australia hopes both will return for the second Test, but their ability to sustain the workload is uncertain.
Australia has a couple of key strengths, notably Nathan Lyon, who, despite rare pitch assistance, is an obvious advantage. England lacks a spinner to match his skill. However, I expect the tourists to challenge him aggressively, with batters like Joe Root, Harry Brook, and Zak Crawley ready to win those battles. Against the likely batting lineup, Lyon will need to protect the boundaries, meaning cheap singles. England can force Australia to spread the field, and Lyon won't be able to dictate the game.
Then there's Steve Smith, Australia's one batter of undoubted form and class, who will captain the team in the opening Test. He carries a lot of responsibility and knows he must perform. Eight years ago, when I was with the England team as a batting coach, we struggled to dismiss him. He never gives his wicket away, a stark contrast to some of the Bazball exponents.
The first Test is crucial, and England has a chance to assert themselves against a weakened opposition. With their mentality, they will embrace the challenge. It's likely to be a good pitch, and England will enjoy batting on it, followed by their bowlers taking control. Mark Wood has been cleared to play after a hamstring scare, but my ideal team sheet would feature Gus Atkinson and Brydon Carse. If Wood and Jofra Archer can play three games each, it would be a significant boost.
However, I'm slightly concerned about England's preparation. I've toured Australia as a player and coach, and both times, we started with several four-day, first-class matches. While these games don't guarantee success, they often fail to replicate the Test conditions or opposition. Players get familiar with the Kookaburra ball and the heat, but the approach must be different. The kind of reckless play we saw from Brook against the Lions last week wouldn't be acceptable in the Ashes. Any time in the middle is valuable, and players must focus on their game.
Stokes mentioned playing 'balls to the wall' cricket against the Lions, but I'm not sure we witnessed it. The schedule no longer allows for the preparation teams once took for granted, but England could have benefited from a first-class game against a state side, not a casual runout against reserves. Despite these concerns, I'm incredibly excited about what lies ahead. Being a professional player, I've always loved the travel, and nothing beats touring Australia for an English cricketer. This team has a great opportunity, a chance to seize the initiative in Perth, and then bring home the Ashes.
