Soybean prices took a tumble on Friday, leaving many wondering what's next for this crucial commodity. This week's trading saw a dip, with nearby soybean contracts falling by 17 to 22 ¼ cents. But here's a silver lining: January contracts still managed a weekly gain of 7 ½ cents as November's trading period concluded. The national average cash bean price also felt the pressure, dropping 22 3/4 cents to reach $10.50 1/4.
Soymeal futures mirrored the downward trend, declining by $1.40 on the day, although December saw an increase of $5.40 this week. Soybean oil futures experienced a mixed bag, decreasing by 2 to 10 points across the board, yet still showing a weekly increase of 47 points.
Now, let's dive into the details. The USDA's release of previously unreported large daily sales revealed a total of 1.348 MMT (million metric tons). But here's where it gets controversial: China, a major player, only accounted for 332,000 MT of that, with a significant 616,000 MT going to 'Unknown destinations'. The Philippines, however, purchased 237,500 MT of soybean meal. Keep in mind, the actual weekly report data won't be fully updated until January 2nd.
Looking at crop production data, the US soybean yield was 0.5 bpa (bushels per acre) below the September report, at 53 bpa. This led to a 48 mbu (million bushels) reduction in production, totaling 4.253 bbu (billion bushels).
Carryover from 2024/25 was down 14 mbu from the previous report, reaching 316 mbu, according to the September Grain Stocks report. Combining this with the production numbers, the overall supply decreased by 61 mbu, landing at 2.59 bbu. On the demand side, exports were down 50 mbu, which brought ending stocks down by 10 mbu to 290 mbu.
Globally, Brazil saw an uptick in domestic usage and exports, while Argentina experienced increased exports that offset a decline in crush. Ending stocks worldwide were 2 MMT (million metric tons) lower, at 121.99 MMT.
And this is the part most people miss: NOPA (National Oilseed Processors Association) data, due out Monday morning, is expected to show October crush totaling 209.52 mbu, with a wide range of 197.4 to 223.5 mbu. Soybean oil stocks are projected at 1.257 billion lbs, slightly up from 1.243 billion lbs at the end of September.
Let's break down the closing prices:
- Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $11.12 3/4, down 19 1/4 cents.
- Nearby Cash was $10.50 1/4, down 22 3/4 cents.
- Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.24 1/2, down 22 1/2 cents.
- Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.36, down 20 3/4 cents.
What do you think about the impact of China's limited buying? Do you foresee any shifts in the market based on these numbers? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
